Census 2021 projected to 2061 · model v8.0

What will your area look like in 2051?

Put in a postcode and get the whole picture for that community: the ethnic projection to 2061, who is arriving and why, school and housing pressure, care and health demand, and the constituency it sits in. Twenty three datasets, one page, every figure sourced.

318 local authorities
631 constituencies
23 datasets per area
Free to reuse with attribution

Scored against Census 2021 before publication: 1.56pp average error, +0.05pp bias, 285 areas →

England and Wales

White British share of population

2011 80.5% four in five

2021 74.4% three in four

2051 56.3% just over half

Census Projected

Census years are England and Wales as a whole, each weighted by its own population: 2011 from Census table KS201EW across 348 authorities on 2011 boundaries, 2021 from TS021 across all 318 areas. 2051 covers the 312 where the model is still projecting demography rather than running away from it, and 2061 the 255 it reaches at all, so a 2061 bar would not be measuring the same country as the three above it. On those 255 areas alone the share runs 56.0% in 2051 to 48.8% in 2061. The 2051 figure is not all one model: 49 areas carry projections from an earlier run the current code cannot reproduce, 15.4% of the weighted population. Across the 263 areas the current model produces, 2051 is 54.3%.

Latest research

FINDING +234% The methodology change that erased 180,000 British emigrants a year Read more → FINDING 108,099 108,099 to 11: How Britain ended care-worker migration in three years Read more → ANALYSIS 7.32M Brexit was supposed to end EU migration. The EU Settlement Scheme has confirmed 7.3 million. Read more →

All 20 findings →

74.4% → 56.3% White British share, 2021 → 2051 Observed Census 2021 across 318 local authorities, against the Hamilton-Perry projection across the 312 where 2051 is publishable. 2061, across the 255 areas the model reaches that far: 56.0% in 2051 to 48.8%. Those same 255 areas, not the 312 above. Full trajectory in the model below.

86 of 312 areas below 50% White British by 2051 99 of the 255 areas the model reaches by 2061. Click any area for its 2011 to 2061 trajectory.

110 areas projected foreign-born majority by 2051 5 projected Muslim majority by 2051.

Census 2011 and 2021 observed. 2051 and 2061 projected by Hamilton-Perry CCR model, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. The model was fitted on Census 2001 to 2011 and scored against Census 2021: mean absolute error 1.56 percentage points on that one-decade forecast, bias +0.05 points across 285 areas. Areas where the model diverged are withheld. Full methodology →

Hamilton-Perry model, tested out of sample against Census 2021

National ethnic composition trajectory

The ONS does not project ethnic composition at local authority level. This model does. 318 local authorities. Census 2011 and 2021 observed data. Hamilton-Perry CCR methodology. 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Every ratio traced to Census observations.

86 areas WBI under 50% by 2051

99 areas WBI under 50% by 2061, of 255 projected

5 areas projected Muslim majority by 2051

110 areas projected foreign-born majority by 2051

When the projection takes these areas below half

Areas with a White British share of 60% or more at the 2021 Census, grouped by the decade in which the projection first puts the share below half, A to Z. The model projects 2031, 2041, 2051 and 2061 only, so the decade is as precise as it can be. Areas closer to the line are left out: their decade is carried by where they started rather than by the trend. 33 areas were already below half at the 2021 Census.

Between 2031 and 2041 21 areas

Between 2041 and 2051 25 areas

Between 2051 and 2061 24 areas

Source: Census 2021 (ONS, table TS021) projected with Hamilton-Perry v8.0, mean absolute error 1.56pp on a one-decade out-of-sample test. Projected years past an area's plausibility horizon are withheld and not counted.

See the research National demographic outlook Methodology

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