Census 2021 to 2061 — Hamilton-Perry projections

320 local authorities. Every community mapped.

The most detailed publicly available ethnic composition projections for England. 20 ethnic groups. Census-direct methodology. 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. From 2021 observed data to 2061 projections.

Hamilton-Perry CCR model · MAE 1.72pp · Full methodology →

Latest research

FINDING 109 109 local authorities projected minority White British by 2051 Read more → ANALYSIS 89.7% Albanian asylum seekers don't change ethnic minority statistics. 90% identify as White Read more → ANALYSIS 319K Arab population projected to triple in 20 councils by 2051. a group no model has tracked before Read more →

All 13 findings →

Hamilton-Perry model, Census-verified

National ethnic composition trajectory

The ONS does not project ethnic composition at local authority level. This model does. 320 local authorities. Census 2011 and 2021 observed data. Hamilton-Perry CCR methodology. 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Every ratio traced to Census observations.

White British share (population-weighted, 320 local authorities)

2011 Census 80.5%

2021 Census 73.3%

2051 projected 48.7%

2061 illustrative 40.2%

Census figures observed. 2051/2061 projected by Hamilton-Perry CCR model. 2061 is illustrative only. Full methodology

78 areas WBI under 50% by 2051

103 areas WBI under 50% by 2061

5 areas projected Muslim majority by 2051

110 areas projected foreign-born majority by 2051

Fastest transformation: White British % change 2021 → 2041

Havering 67% Thurrock 66% Dartford 67% Salford 74% Bolton 69% Bexley 64% Swindon 74% Broxbourne 69% Sutton 57% Walsall 67%

See the research National demographic outlook Methodology

Explore the data

What does YOUR area look like in 2051?

320 local authority profiles. Demographic projections to 2061, religion, nativity, shift-share analysis, school data, economic profiles. All sourced. All free.

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Most diverse regions

Regional variation in ethnic composition. Sorted by lowest population-weighted White British share.

London 36.8% WBI (pop-weighted) · 33 areas

West Midlands 71.8% WBI (pop-weighted) · 30 areas

East of England 78.5% WBI (pop-weighted) · 45 areas

South East 78.8% WBI (pop-weighted) · 64 areas

East Midlands 79.6% WBI (pop-weighted) · 35 areas

Yorkshire and The Humber 80.8% WBI (pop-weighted) · 15 areas

Every projection sourced. Every figure checked.

Census 2021 observed data. Hamilton-Perry methodology. Click any figure and trace it back to the ONS. Then decide for yourself.

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